The 3 Numbers That Actually Predict If You'll Be Profitable

Ask a struggling trader for their win rate and they will know it instantly. Ask for their expectancy and you usually get silence. That gap is exactly why most retail accounts never compound.

Win rate feels important because it is emotional — it is how often you are right. But profitability is mathematical, not emotional. Three numbers describe it almost completely.

1. Expectancy

Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade, expressed in R (your risk unit). A trader who wins 40% of the time with 3R winners and 1R losers has a positive expectancy and will compound. A 70% win rate with 1R winners and 3R losers will not.

If you only track one number, track this one. It is the single honest answer to 'do I have an edge?'

2. Profit Factor

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Below 1.0 you are losing money. Around 1.5 you have a workable edge. Above 2.0 you have something genuinely worth scaling.

It is powerful because it is unforgiving — a few oversized losses crater it immediately, which is exactly the behaviour you want surfaced.

3. Average Risk:Reward, Actually Realised

Not the R:R you planned — the R:R you actually closed. The gap between the two is where most edges quietly die. Traders plan 1:3 and close 1:1.2 because they cut winners out of fear.

MKSTVEFX shows planned versus realised side by side, so the leak becomes impossible to ignore.

The takeaway

Stop optimising the number that feels good. Track expectancy, profit factor and realised R:R. Fix whichever is weakest. Repeat. That loop is the entire job.