The temptation after a good sample is to size up. The professional question is quieter: what drawdown could this same sample produce in a different order?

Risk-of-ruin and Monte Carlo views answer that question before real capital pays for the lesson.

Sequence matters

Two traders can have the same expectancy and very different equity stress if losses cluster. Simulated resampling shows how often that cluster appears.

Read the drawdown bands

Do not stare only at the best curve. Focus on worst drawdown bands, loss-streak frequency and the percentage of runs that breach your account rule.

Use simulations as brakes

A simulation is not a prophecy. It is a brake on overconfidence. If normal variance can violate your limit, the risk size is too large for that account.

Put the review into practice.

Keep your trade record and performance analysis in one workspace.

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